With enrollment projected to drop by about 1,000 students over 10 years, the school board last night approved a recommendation to close Brookside Middle School to students.

Tuesday, October 05, 1999

With enrollment projected to drop by about 1,000 students over 10 years, the school board last night approved a recommendation to close Brookside Middle School to students.

The board is seeking possible alternatives, but will make a final decision in January.

&uot;We’ve come to the point where we need to look at our facilities,&uot; said Superintendent David Prescott, adding that past budget reductions have focused on district staff.

&uot;Over the last couple of years, enrollment has decreased greater than we expected,&uot; Prescott added. &uot;Faced with this continuing decline in enrollment, we need a reorganization plan that will reduce facilities and staff costs and … enhance our ability to preserve our student programming at quality levels.&uot;

The recommendation includes moving district administration, special services, community education and maintenance to Brookside, abandoning the current high school, moving ninth grade to the new high school and moving sixth grade to the elementary schools.

Southwest Junior High would then become Southwest Middle School, housing seventh- and eighth-grade students; the middle school philosophy, or small schools (pods) within a larger school, is preferred by the school board to the junior high philosophy.

The Area Learning Center would also move to the Ramsey building, where Community Education is now housed.

&uot;Through the recommendation, we will still meet the needs of the students,&uot; said Tom Eaton, board chairman.

The new high school and other facility improvements will also move forward.

When district voters approved a $35 million bond referendum in 1998, it wasn’t because of crowded schools, Eaton added. Instead, it was because of outdated technology, an obsolete high school and facilities in need of improvements.

This facilities referendum allows the district to provide a &uot;better educational experience for all students,&uot; Eaton said.

Why the reductions?

The board expects enrollment to decline by 100 student next school year; enrollment is also decreasing by about 100 students this year, with significant decreases coming each year at the kindergarten level. The current kindergarten class is 217 students.

Hired by the school district, a demographer is also projecting a 1,000 student drop by 2010. With the district currently receiving $5,000 in state aid per student, an enrollment decline of 100 students represents a revenue loss of $500,000 each year.

If enrollment does drop by 1,000 students and state aid formulas don’t change, the district will receive $5 million less in 2010 than it did from the state in 1999.

The current recommendation will cut $500,000 from the district’s budget. But because of the sharp enrollment declines and salary settlement costs, the board may need to cut an additional $400,000 from the general budget to cover financial needs through 2001.

&uot;I was asked to look at your enrollment and make an enrollment project,&uot; Hazel Reinhardt told the board Monday. &uot;We’re going to see a significant drop in enrollment. Every indication I see points to smaller enrollment.&uot;

Owner of her own consulting firm, Reinhardt used births, percentage of births to future kindergarten numbers, fertility rates, the number of current 5-year-olds, households and net migration numbers to determine her projections.

While she said short-term projections aren’t necessarily accurate, long-term numbers will show a significant decline; that is unless a major, high-paying employer attracts people to the school district.

&uot;This might not be a good projection for 2002,&uot; said Reinhardt, a former state demographer. &uot;Probably around 3,000 students is what you can expect in 2010.&uot;

The current enrollment is just under 4,000 students; final projections weren’t presented yet to the board.

&uot;This is coming for the long-term,&uot; she added. &uot;In my best educational judgment, it will take something incredible to make it (enrollment) higher than that.&uot;

The main reason for the decline is a changing age structure in the school district, she said; there are fewer women of childbearing years living here.

More older people are moving to the county, but Generation X, born between 1965 and 1976, and baby boomers of family-bearing age aren’t among population increases.

The population shift and decline is due, in part, to increased education, allowing more mobility and financial opportunities elsewhere, she added.

She said Xers and younger boomers were encouraged to seek college degrees, but are now saddled with debt, increasing the need for higher-paying employment.

&uot;We’re not reproducing ourselves,&uot; she said. &uot;The fundamental problem is the district is getting old.&uot;

Demographics

The number of households in the county grew from 13,029 in 1990 to 13,067 in 1998, but the number of households with school-age children fell 30 percent in the county during the same period. The state decline is 18.5 percent.

The older population is increasing, accounting for the rise in households, because Albert Lea and the surrounding county offer an attractive place to retire, she said.

Also, &uot;A lot of senior citizens in the county have no grandchildren in the district because they didn’t grow up here,&uot; Prescott added.

But there isn’t the type of employment that will attract families of childbearing ages, she said.

While baby boomers currently make up 30 percent of the national population, there are also fewer Xers and younger boomers, who are of childbearing years.

&uot;Xers are a very small generation with extremely low fertility rates,&uot; Reinhardt said. She added the current fertility rate for white women is 1.8 percent. That rate is the number of children women will have during their childbearing years.

Boomers are also 75 percent white and have fewer children than other races.

Will the enrollment decline continue?

All Minnesota communities are experiencing enrollment declines or drops in increases because of the younger boomer, Xer dilemma, Reinhardt said. But in Freeborn County and other agricultural areas the declines are steeper.

That’s because agriculture is also facing tough challenges, with the average age of farmers increasing, she said.

&uot;You’re beyond the influence of the Twin Cities Metro area. You’re going to see some of the same influences as rural communities,&uot; she said.

But Reinhardt did provide a date when state enrollment will again rise.

About 2015, the current generation now attending school will number about 29 percent of the national population. This generation, Generation Y, is about 66 percent white. It also contains a larger number of Hispanics with a fertility rate if 2.8 percent.

&uot;Enrollment statewide will move up again in 2015,&uot; she said. &uot;Hispanic women have a very high fertility rate.&uot;