Column: Democrats 2008 race seems Hillarys to lose
Published 12:00 am Saturday, December 23, 2006
By Dick Morris, Vote.com
The battle for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination will come down to two candidates: Hillary vs. the Un-Hillary.
Sen. Clinton is so polarizing and a female candidacy is so novel, that the race for the nomination must revolve around her. Who will the Un-Hillary be?
The early front-runner is Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. As a new African-American face, he has the same sort of first-of-a-kind credentials as Hillary and boasts genuine outsider status as well.
But Obama is very, very inexperienced. He was elected to Illinois&8217; state Senate in a one-party district, then won the Democratic U.S. Senate primary because his wealthy, spend-it-all opponent was caught in a messy divorce scandal just as his candidacy was peaking. He won in the general election of &8217;06 because Illinois is a blue state and the Republican who was to be his adversary dissolved in a marital scandal of his own, whereupon the talent-poor local GOP opted to import the absurdist candidate Alan Keyes &8212; making Obama&8217;s victory a foregone conclusion.
In his book &8220;The Audacity of Hope,&8221; he confesses that in his Senate campaign &8220;no candidate ran a negative TV ad about me.&8221; That&8217;s as close as you get to a political equivalent of virginity.
Can Obama weather a presidential race? He better ramp up his learning curve if he is going to try.
His book is filled with feature-story fluff about his background, eloquent philosophizing on the state of our nation and its history, and freshly scrubbed naivet/ about the political process.
But it lacks any substantive ideas, policy innovations or even any insightful analysis of public issues. Unless he can step beyond such Oprah-level content, the national press corps will have him for breakfast.
The bottom line? He could grow into the role of a national candidate, but don&8217;t count on it happening this year.
Dick Morris was an adviser to Bill Clinton for 20 years. Look for Dick&8217;s new book &8220;Condi vs. Hillary&8221; available now.