Survival key: Have a long-term strategy to manage money

Published 10:40 am Saturday, August 29, 2009

Market volatility points to a basic investing truth: You cannot predict market direction with any degree of certainty or consistency. The key to survival is to have a long-term strategy and follow a few time-proven guidelines to help manage your money and emotions.

Don’t panic: If your investment strategy reflects your long-term financial goals, don’t make drastic changes or let market swings steer you off course.

Keep investing: Realize that even after markets have dropped, they have rebounded over time. Consider your financial ability to continue investing through periods of low prices. While it does not assure a profit or protect against loss, buying on a regular schedule regardless of price — called dollar-cost averaging — may benefit you in the long run.

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Diversify: It is important to maintain a good mix of stocks, bonds and cash in your portfolio. Various asset classes perform differently, so the upswings in one may offset the declines in another. While diversification can help spread risk, it does not eliminate it.

Focus on time, not timing: When you invest, do it with long-term objectives in mind. History has proven that a successful investment strategy stays focused and stays invested. Avoid the temptation to buy as the market surges and sell as it dips—market analyses show that timing the market rarely, if ever, works and it can cost you dearly. Consistently staying invested can help you realize possible positive returns over time. Those who miss out on the market’s best-performing days may miss out on significant returns (and growth) of their investments.

Consider the 10-year performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500® Index (an unmanaged index which measures the performance of 500 widely held common stocks of large-cap companies) from Dec. 31, 1997, to Dec. 31, 2007. Those fully invested over the full 10 years would have enjoyed an average annual total return of 5.91 percent. A $10,000 investment tied to the index would have grown over that period of time to $17,756.

By contrast, if an investor missed the 10 best days of the market (happened to pull his or her money from the market on its 10-most “up” days), he or she would have experienced an average annual total return over that 10-year period of negative (0.30) percent. That same $10,000 investment would have shrunk to $9,702.

Similarly, missing the 20 best days of the market would have resulted in an average annual total return of negative (3.91) percent, and his or her $10,000 investment would have declined to $6,715.

Of course, no individual may invest directly in any index, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Still, the lesson remains clear: Staying invested in the market is the only sure way to never miss the market’s best days.

Steve Zenk, FIC, is a Financial Consultant with Thrivent Financial for Lutherans in Albert Lea. He can be reached at (507) 377-2826. Thrivent Financial for Lutherans is a Fortune 500 financial services membership organization helping nearly 3 million members achieve their financial goals and give back to their communities. This column was prepared by Thrivent Financial for use by this representative.