Predictions: The Minnesota Twins and Vikings
Published 8:08 am Thursday, December 24, 2009
Predictions don’t seem very popular and are no longer reported. There are futurists, but their opinions are pretty much limited to the people that employ them. To date I have not seen any other sport predictions and for better or worse, I am about to try on an old and somewhat honored custom of making predictions just before the New Year.
Let’s begin with our Twins. The biggest question is whether Joe Mauer is going to sign a new contract and stay with the Twins. Much time has been spent on the airways and sports columns discussing Mauer’s future, but the solution I like was put together by three fans, a father, son and son-in-law. What better group could you have on Thanksgiving afternoon to discuss a problem. Their consensus was that Mauer would accept an offer of 25 percent less than the Yankees would pay him with the provision that the 25 percent saved would immediately be spent to contract players that would improve the team. Their thinking was passed on to me by e-mail and I responded saying: That such a contract provides what each side wants and that’s what negotiations are all about. And it sounded like a win-win to me.
With Mauer on board, will the Twins win the World Series? I believe the team will reach the American League Championship Series and if they can survive that, they may very well win the World Series for normally in this day and age, the American League has the better team.
The Twins will have a good team, which should outclass the rest of the Central Division. They have signed shortstop J.J. Hardy, pitchers Carl Pavano, Jon Rauch and expect the return of starter Kevin Slowey and set-up man Pat Neshak. They really don’t have to spend a lot of money on a third baseman although that would make things easier. However, there is a huge obstacle on their way to the World Series. Now anything can happen in a short series and they could have defeated the Yankees in last year’s Division series, but the Twins have a real disadvantage in starting pitching. The Yankees first three starters are C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte with respective ERAs of 3.37, 4.04 and 4.16. Toss in Mariano Rivera’s 1.76 and it looks difficult to win a short series against them. Match them against the Twins’ starters, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and Joe Nathan’s ERAs of 4.03, 4.35, 4.64 and 2.10. The Twins seem to be a step behind. So in a cold-blooded analysis I predict the Twins will be good, but not good enough to win the pennant even with Mauer.
Switching teams to a future that is close upon us as the Super Bowl will be played Feb. 7. Of all the Minnesota teams the Vikings are the hardest to predict. The Vikings future depends on one man, Brett Favre. Sure it is easy to designate the Vikings as a team of destiny. A sentimental favorite with a 40-year-old future Hall of Famer bringing them through the playoffs. But while it is a fascinating and feel-good story it also points up a Viking weakness. Favre is 40 and has been known to fade in recent years at the end of a season. He has not been the Favre of old recently and one worries. Add that to the loss of outstanding middle linebacker E.J. Henderson and I predict the Super Bowl mountain will not be climbed.
It comes down to that the Vikings have a 40-year-old quarterback and other teams do not. If Favre can pull off a Super Bowl win, he has the right to lay claim to being the greatest quarterback of all time, but if he does, I would be surprised.