Editorial: Tsunami surges are hard to predict
Published 8:24 am Tuesday, March 2, 2010
The warnings from scientists about a tsunami on Saturday that could inundate coastal Hawaiian cities served as a reminder that some areas of science aren’t as far advanced as people would like to think.
Hydrology, particularly on an oceanic scale, remains an area with many unsolved questions.
Scientists on Sunday were apologizing for their much-hyped warnings — and at the same time were defending their warnings.
Indeed, the warnings were good and needed, but the scientists should not apologize for their actions. If the Chilean earthquake had produced the kind of tsunami surge seen in Hilo, Hawaii, in 1960, the warnings would have been quite justified. Surely, the scientists would have been vilified had they failed to make the warnings clear and dire enough to trigger cooperation by all.
Instead of apologizing, scientists could do well to remind people of the areas of science humans fail to understand. They could admit that they do not understand oceanography and hydrology to the same degree they understand, for instance, meteorology. In fact, it is only in recent years that atmospheric scientists even have gained a clearer, more-accurate picture of the movement of wind. (Yes, wind.)
Give the people a peek at what the ocean scientists are trying to comprehend, and the people, in turn, will be more understanding of the situation.