Much of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa are in severe thunderstorm watches as of 3 p.m. Friday as thunderstorms and showers move through.

KIMT-TV meteorologist Adam Frederick said the probabilities for tornadoes with the system is low.

“The widespread atmospheric conditions don’t favor tornadoes,” he said.

However, he said there could be brief spinoff tornadoes when the cold front move through — “nothing strong and long-lived.”

The probability of two tornadoes, he said, is 20 percent — a very low number for tornado forecasting. And he said the probability of a tornado reaching F1 or F2 is 5 percent.

Heavy rain is the greater concern. Albert Lea and much of the area remains in the flash flood watch this afternoon.

“We would need three inches of rain in three hours to have a flash flood occur,” Frederick said.

Much of the ground is saturated, more so in Austin than in Albert Lea, because of recent storms, Frederick noted. The Cedar River is running high, too.

The majority of the area should get about an inch of rain, he forecast. However, if storm cells focus on the same path — what meteorologists call training, because they look like a train — some places could get up to three inches.

According to the 3 p.m. radar image, rain is falling to the north of Albert Lea. More is falling in Faribault and Kossuth counties. That storm should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Albert Lea, Frederick said.

The strongest storms, he said, are forecast to arrive this evening. See KIMT radar here.