ST. PAUL (AP) — A cold snap has lowered the forecasted flood crests of the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers, but state officials said Friday the threat remains with flood warnings active in 40 counties, about half the state.

“We’re very concerned people are going to believe it’s over and it’s not,” said Wade Setter, deputy director of the state’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management. “There’s still a lot of moisture out there.”

An updated flood forecast for Minnesota released Friday afternoon still predicts major flooding up and down the Red River Valley and experts say water levels in Moorhead could top the historic 2009 flood. Flood projections show the Red River has a 50 percent chance of reaching 40.5 feet in Fargo, N.D., close to the 2009 record.

That’s up from the one-in-three chance the weather service had previously given the Red River of reaching 41 feet, but that was before a storm earlier this week moved over the Red River Valley.

National Weather Service meteorologist John Margraf said a second crest statewide was expected sometime in April. Its height will depend on precipitation and how quickly the snow in the various watersheds melts.