My Point of View by Jennifer Vogt-Erickson

My husband and I have two young children, which is the maximum number we can handle and still put on a good face for our neighbors. We’re introverts with little chance of meeting our needs for solitude even under the best parental circumstances.

Despite having a small number of offspring compared to most of my female ancestors, I’m slightly above the total fertility rate for U.S. women, which now stands at 1.88.

Since replacement rate in an industrialized society is 2.1, the population of our country could eventually reach a point when it stops growing. Then it would not just reach an equilibrium, it would start to decline.

But that probably won’t happen in the U.S. in the foreseeable future, even though it’s already occurring in some other countries. The main reason: immigration.

Russia and Japan, which have total fertility rates of 1.6 and 1.4, respectively, have been below replacement rate for at least a couple decades and have little in-migration. Russia’s population has decreased by about 5 million, and Japan’s has fallen slightly. Their populations are aging quickly, and by 2050, they’re expected to lose about 15 percent of their populations. By then, over one-third of Japan’s population will likely be 65 and over.

Immigration to the U.S. brings in more younger people, often of childbearing age, and the first generation of immigrant women usually have more children than the U.S. average (if their country of origin has a higher fertility rate). Twenty-five percent of children in the U.S. have at least one immigrant parent. These girls’ future fertility rate, if demographic trends continue, will be similar to the rest of the population. It’s one way in which immigrant families quickly assimilate to the American way of life.

This is a big reason why immigration policy reform should get a serious reception soon — we need more younger people to support our aging population. In the U.S., 13 percent of the population is 65 and older. By 2050, 20 percent will be in that bracket. (Albert Lea is ahead of the curve, currently at 22 percent.)

In just over 25 years, deaths are projected to outnumber births in Minnesota for 15 consecutive years.

We can’t assume that our current pipelines of people from other countries will continue to flow unabated either. Our biggest immigration source is Mexico — 28 percent of total immigrants and about 60 percent of undocumented immigrants are originally from Mexico.

Mexico’s population is starting to age rapidly. As recently as 1970, Mexican women had a total fertility rate of nearly 7 children, but their fertility has dived since then, down to 2.2 in 2012.

Remember all those undocumented workers who stopped coming to the U.S. during the recent recession? They didn’t just stay home because the economy was bad. They also didn’t arrive because the pool of extra 15- to 39-year-olds is getting relatively smaller. Many other Latin American countries have experienced similar reductions in fertility rates.

Following Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida gave the Republican response in Spanish. In translation, the Congressman stated, “We should also work through the appropriate channels to create permanent solutions for our immigration system, to secure our borders, modernize legal immigration, and strengthen our economy. In the past, the president has expressed support for ideas like these. Now we ask him to cooperate with us to get it done.”

The president has signaled cooperation; it’s other legislators in Curbelo’s party who are stymieing reforms in immigration policy. Because of Congress’s failure to act, Obama took executive action last year, which included delaying deportation for undocumented immigrants brought here as children and for those families with children who are U.S. citizens.

Republicans in Congress recently voted to block those actions — and the House may sue the Obama administration on top of that — rather than pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would fashion a middle way between mass deportation (not feasible) and mass amnesty (not fair).

Jonathan Last, a conservative pundit, makes an excellent case for why lawmakers should favor a liberalized immigration policy in his book “What to Expect When No One’s Expecting.” One of the biggest reasons is the strain that people of retirement age will put on an entitlement system supported by fewer workers in the coming decades.

I don’t think Last’s predictions of “demographic disaster” will be as dire as he argues, but it’s a good idea to give ourselves more time to transition to new demographic realities, as long as we have that option.

I’m all for immigration reform, partly because I’m not planning on producing any more future workers myself. As Last documents over and over, countries with low fertility rates are having little success persuading women to have more children.

 

Albert Lea resident Jennifer Vogt-Erickson is a member of the Freeborn County DFL Party.