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By Cathy Wurzer and Gracie Stockton, Minnesota Public Radio News

In the last few weeks, severe storms have spun up tornadoes across Minnesota, Iowa and North Dakota, with one twister near Enderlin claiming three lives last month.

In Minnesota alone, there have been 48 tornado reports so far this season, according to preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center. That’s already more than the annual average of 43, and the most since 2022 when the state saw 60 tornadoes.

“It’s just weather system after weather system coming through the region, and those weather systems are interacting with a lot of instability, that kind of warm and humid air that helps generate the severe weather,” said Kenny Blumenfeld, senior climatologist with the Minnesota State Climate Office.

Will this active pattern continue?

Blumenfeld said he and other forecasters see no sign of a shutoff to this active pattern in the coming weeks.

“There is, of course, no guarantee that we’re going to get the same pacing of tornadoes and heavy rainfall events,” he said. “But you know, a lot of times in the last few years we’ve had these active patterns, and then somewhere on the horizon, you can see everything just ending.”

Over the last several years, Minnesota has entered a drought stage at the end of the growing season, but that’s not apparent for 2025.

“It certainly could be just beyond the horizon, but we haven’t really seen any slam-dunk indication from the forecast models that the active pattern is about to end,” Blumenfeld said.

More tornadoes or better detection?

While climate change is bringing more frequent and intense severe weather to Minnesota, Blumenfeld said we shouldn’t be quick to assume we’re getting more tornadoes.

“On one hand, we know the tornadoes that we’ve had because they hit things. On the other hand, it’s easier to see them,” Blumenfeld said. “Our detection is better than ever, our spotting is better than ever, our verification and validation is better than ever. So sometimes now we’‘e able to count tornadoes that maybe wouldn’t have been counted in the past.”

But one thing is pretty clear.

“However you slice it we’re above average, and therefore likely to finish well above average for the season,” Blumenfeld said.